基于WGA算子—熵权法的农业洪涝灾害风险评估——以潍坊市为例

目的 为了提高农村地区洪涝灾害科学应对水平,减轻农业损失,构建了农业洪涝灾害风险评估模型,分析评估指标的灵敏度,制定科学有效的风险应对策略。方法 文章结合2018年山东潍坊市的气象、地理和社会经济资料,构建农业洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系,利用熵权法确定各指标的权重,通过WGA算子分析指标的灵敏度,并得到潍坊市风险评估值,借助GIS绘制潍坊市农业洪涝灾害风险等级图,以此为基础制定风险防范措施。结果 （1）地形高程差和河网密度的指标灵敏度最大,最大日降水量次之,暴雨频率、汛期降水量、地均农业GDP、卫生机构数量的指标灵敏程度低。（2）潍坊市致灾因子的危险性从西往东逐渐减弱;孕灾环境敏感度最强的是潍坊西部和南部的山区,地势起伏大、河流众多,极易造成洪涝灾害;潍坊市的承灾体易损性呈现出从西北到东南逐级递减的现象;防灾减灾能力较弱的地区位于潍坊市的中部。（3）潍坊市综合风险总体态势是从西南到东北逐级递减。（4）应对致灾危险,提高气象预警的及时性和准确性,适当调整农作物的播种时间;应对孕灾敏感,兴修水利工程,发展林业;应对承灾易损,注重抗涝作物的栽培,加强对农业的自救;增强防灾能力,推行相应的保险协议,科普相关的防灾减灾知识,从而减少洪涝灾害给农业带来的损失。结论 通过农业洪涝灾害风险评估模型,可掌握潍坊市各地区的风险等级,因地制宜地制定风险应对策略,为农业防灾减灾提供理论支持和政策建议。     

Does consumption respond to predicted increases in cash-hand availability?: Evidence from the Italian “severance pay”

We examine whether Italian household consumption exhibits excess sensitivity to “severance pay”, a sizable lump-sum that workers receive at job termination. We find no evidence of excess sensitivity of non-durable expenditure to this anticipated cash-in-hand change.     

中国企业集团对新兴产业机会敏感性、多元化与绩效关系的实证研究

文章将新兴产业发展为中国企业集团带来的"多元化刺激"与多元化程度和绩效联系起来进行讨论,利用706家上市公司合并报表数据,对三者的关系进行实证检验.多元回归分析结果表明:企业集团不相关多元化程度与新兴产业敏感性呈正相关,非国有企业集团对新兴产业的敏感性远远大干国有企业集团,新兴产业敏感性与财务绩效呈现显著的负相关关系,而且企业集团对新兴产业机会的敏感性,对其多元化程度和绩效的关系具有微弱的负向调节作用.     

公司治理机制与高管薪酬决定研究最新进展综述

基于坚实的理论基础和丰富的数据环境,有关高管薪酬的研究在近十几年来得以迅速发展,并成为经济学、管理学等学科的重要研究领域。由本次国际金融危机引发的全球＂限薪＂浪潮,更是加深了公众对如何从公司治理层面强化企业高管薪酬治理的关注程度。文章系统梳理了国外关于公司治理机制与高管薪酬决定研究的最新成果,并对后续研究进行了展望。     

Option pricing with orthogonal polynomial expansions

We derive analytic series representations for European option prices in polynomial stochastic volatility models. This includes the Jacobi, Heston, Stein–Stein, and Hull–White models, for which we provide numerical case studies. We find that our polynomial option price series expansion performs as efficiently and accurately as the Fourier‐transform‐based method in the nested affine cases. We also derive and numerically validate series representations for option Greeks. We depict an extension of our approach to exotic options whose payoffs depend on a finite number of prices.     

Do not blame the “bad” weather: Stimulating its poetic aesthetics in nature-based tourism destinations

The negative effects of on-site bad weather are generally recognized. However, the experiences of tourists engaging with bad weather are extremely complex and far from being a generalization of negative outcomes, especially as the positive aesthetic value of bad weather begins to gain attention. From an aesthetic perspective, taking complex ensembles of interacting natural elements including weather as aesthetic objects, this study constructs a robust theoretical framework to analyze these complex bad weather experiences. Through a mixed methods research design, this study identifies one of the possible negative impact mechanisms whereby bad weather can negatively affect perceived aesthetic quality, further negatively impact aesthetic emotion, and ultimately reduce tourist loyalty. Literary association and aesthetic sensitivity are revealed as boundary conditions that inhibit the negative effects of bad weather on aesthetic quality. Building on these findings, this study further advances our knowledge of the interplay of weather experiences and natural aesthetics.     

The effect of financial reporting quality on CEO compensation structure: Evidence from accounting comparability

This study examines the effect of accounting comparability on the design of CEO compensation structure. After controlling for firm-specific attributes, we find that accounting comparability is positively associated with CEO equity-based compensation intensity and pay-performance sensitivity. This suggests that the improved comparability increases the usefulness of equity-based compensation and a firm is willing to offer more equity-based compensation contracts to CEOs and increase their pay-performance sensitivity. Further, we find that the impact of comparability on the CEO’s compensation contract increases with information asymmetry, which is consistent with the notion that accounting comparability is a quality of financial reporting that facilitates the use of equity-based compensation in a poor information environment. Our analysis also reveals that the effect of accounting comparability on CEO compensation structure is greater when a firm’s corporate governance is strong, consistent with the complementary relation between comparability and the exiting corporate governance in determining CEO compensation schemes. Overall, our evidence suggests that firms utilize more equity-based compensation as a proportion of total compensation under greater accounting comparability and enhance the alignment between equity-based compensation and firm performance.     

Error Calculus and Path Sensitivity in Financial Models

In the framework of risk management, for the study of the sensitivity of pricing and hedging in stochastic financial models to changes of parameters and to perturbations of the stock prices, we propose an error calculus that is an extension of the Malliavin calculus based on Dirichlet forms. Although useful also in physics, this error calculus is well adapted to stochastic analysis and seems to be the best practicable in finance. This tool is explained here intuitively and with some simple examples.     

供应链绩效的敏感性分析：长期视角

首先分析了供应链系统相对有效率和相对无效率情况下,供应链子系统的绩效变化对供应链系统绩效的影响机制和影响程度,得出一些有益的结论。同时提出测量供应链子系统重要性的基本指标和判断方法,帮助供应链管理者诊断供应链运营中的薄弱环节,提高供应链管理的效率。